Study: Africa Unlikely to Expand Manufacturing
2023-11-02
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1A recent study says African countries are less likely to follow East Asia's development model of expanding manufacturing to reduce poverty.
2The study predicts a decreasing share of factory jobs for most countries by 2050.
3The Center for Global Development (CGD) released the study this week.
4It said there will be fewer factory workers around the world in 2050.
5And the paper predicts that, even in poor countries with a lot of low-cost labor, manufacturing job growth will slow down.
6China may be an exception out of the 59 countries modeled in the study.
7The study said that China will continue to expand its share of manufacturing to 43.8 percent in 2050 from 30 percent in 2018 and 10.5 percent in 1975.
8The study's writers said that China will continue its strong manufacturing performance, producing higher-valued products.
9This might create some space for developing countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South and Central America to start producing the products China will no longer produce.
10However, it will not be enough for other countries to follow the same development path taken by East Asia in expanding manufacturing.
11Charles Kenny and Ranil Dissanayake of CGD said that many countries will move straight from agriculture to services.
12They say jobs will greatly expand in services because of new technologies - even in countries such as Bangladesh and Ethiopia.
13"There's still a popular idea that low-income countries will progress naturally from being dominated by agriculture to manufacturing-led growth, but mounting evidence suggests that's not going to happen," said Kenny.
14He said people think that farms are going to empty out across Africa and Asia in the coming years, but he said, people are likely to flood into offices and stores, not factories.
15The study projects worldwide growth through the year 2050.
16It aims to predict changes in the economies of 59 countries that make up about three quarters of the world's GDP and population.
17GDP, or gross domestic product, measures all the goods and services produced in a country in a year.
18GDP is considered a good measure of the size of a nation's economy.
19The study projects that even for the lowest-income countries, the number of factory jobs will just keep up with population growth over the next 30 years.
20And it projects manufacturing will likely stay a small part of most of these countries' economies.
21Across all low-income countries, manufacturing jobs are projected to remain below eight percent of total employment.
22The study projects the share of manufacturing jobs in high-income countries will continue to fall, to 8.3 percent by 2050 from 11.4 percent currently.
23Jobs in private service industries are expected to make up 37 percent of worldwide jobs by 2050, and 26 percent in low-income countries.
24That is up from about 12 percent currently.
25I'm Gregory Stachel.
1A recent study says African countries are less likely to follow East Asia's development model of expanding manufacturing to reduce poverty. 2The study predicts a decreasing share of factory jobs for most countries by 2050. 3The Center for Global Development (CGD) released the study this week. It said there will be fewer factory workers around the world in 2050. And the paper predicts that, even in poor countries with a lot of low-cost labor, manufacturing job growth will slow down. 4China may be an exception out of the 59 countries modeled in the study. The study said that China will continue to expand its share of manufacturing to 43.8 percent in 2050 from 30 percent in 2018 and 10.5 percent in 1975. 5The study's writers said that China will continue its strong manufacturing performance, producing higher-valued products. 6This might create some space for developing countries in Africa, Southeast Asia, and South and Central America to start producing the products China will no longer produce. However, it will not be enough for other countries to follow the same development path taken by East Asia in expanding manufacturing. 7Charles Kenny and Ranil Dissanayake of CGD said that many countries will move straight from agriculture to services. They say jobs will greatly expand in services because of new technologies - even in countries such as Bangladesh and Ethiopia. 8"There's still a popular idea that low-income countries will progress naturally from being dominated by agriculture to manufacturing-led growth, but mounting evidence suggests that's not going to happen," said Kenny. He said people think that farms are going to empty out across Africa and Asia in the coming years, but he said, people are likely to flood into offices and stores, not factories. 9The study projects worldwide growth through the year 2050. It aims to predict changes in the economies of 59 countries that make up about three quarters of the world's GDP and population. 10GDP, or gross domestic product, measures all the goods and services produced in a country in a year. GDP is considered a good measure of the size of a nation's economy. 11The study projects that even for the lowest-income countries, the number of factory jobs will just keep up with population growth over the next 30 years. And it projects manufacturing will likely stay a small part of most of these countries' economies. 12Across all low-income countries, manufacturing jobs are projected to remain below eight percent of total employment. The study projects the share of manufacturing jobs in high-income countries will continue to fall, to 8.3 percent by 2050 from 11.4 percent currently. 13Jobs in private service industries are expected to make up 37 percent of worldwide jobs by 2050, and 26 percent in low-income countries. That is up from about 12 percent currently. 14I'm Gregory Stachel. 15Reuters reported this story. Gregory Stachel adapted the story for VOA Learning English. 16________________________________________________ 17Words in This Story 18poverty - n. the state of being poor 19exception - n. someone or something that is different from others 20dominate - v. to be the most important part of (something) 21mounting - v. to increase in amount 22project -v. to estimate or predict something for a time in the future